How many chances does Sal Da Vinci have of winning Eurovision

Pop, melodic, Italian. Indeed, very Italian. But can it really repeat the Måneskin boom? Sal Da Vinci prepares to represent Italy at theEurovision Song Contestscheduled from May 12th to 16th in Vienna, Austria. It will be a special edition (in Italy the two semi-finals on 12 and 14 May will be broadcast in prime time on Rai2, while the final on the 16th will be broadcast on Rai1 – the three events will be hosted by Gabriele Corsi and Elettra Lamborghini), marked by controversies and tensions that go far beyond music. The boycott international competition linked to Israel’s participation has already produced concrete effects: Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Iceland have decided not to take part in the competition. A strong signal, which reduces the number of participants to 35 – among the lowest in recent years – and which could also be reflected in ratings, with some broadcasters (such as the Spanish one) not even broadcasting the evenings. The climate is also incandescent in the artistic world: over a thousand musicians have joined the initiative “No Music for Genocide”, signing a boycott letter. Among the best-known names are Roger Waters, Massive Attack, Brian Eno and Peter Gabriel.

From Sanremo to Eurovision

In this very charged context, Italy focuses on Sal Da Vinci and his “Per semper Sì”, the winning song of the Sanremo Festival (and which gives the title to the album which will be released on May 29th). A victory that came in an edition, that of 2026, which in turn was marked by excellent absences and a “silent” boycott by several big names in Italian music. Among those who chose not to participate, more or less explicitly, were Madame, Blanco and Alfa. «I didn’t present any songs», clarified the Genoese singer-songwriter, taking himself out, and perhaps it would even have been his year after a summer – last – as king of the charts with “A me mi pie”. “I really don’t feel the need to go there”, Ernia’s comment. And like them, many others, whose refusals led Carlo Conti to focus on emerging or outsiders, starting with Sal Da Vinci himself. The success of the entry of “Per semper Sì” in Sanremo also made people talk about the short circuit it generated: on the one hand a Festival emptied of many of its most awaited protagonists, on the other the triumph of an artist outside the most contemporary dynamics of Italian pophowever capable of intercepting a transversal audience and overturning predictions precisely at the moment of greatest disaffection.

How Sal Da Vinci arrives at Eurovision

Yet, among Eurovision enthusiasts – the Eurovisioners – there is no lack of enthusiasm. The online reactions to the Italian song were largely positive, a sign that the piece could play its cards well, at least on an emotional and melodic level. But what do the numbers say? According to bookmaker estimates collected by Eurovisionworldthe situation is quite clear: Sal Da Vinci is currently tenthwith just the 2% chance of winning. Ahead of him, clearly favoured, are the Finns Lampenius & Parkonnen with 31%, followed by the Greek Akylas (16%) and Denmark (11%), Australia (8%) and France (7%). Numbers that tell a simple truth: Italy starts behind. Far behind. Sal Da Vinci has chosen to focus entirely on his Italian identity, to win over the hearts of spectators: the videos shared on the event’s social channels are a triumph of clichés about our country and Naples. Like this one, in which he introduces himself like this: «Hi, my name is Sal Da Vinci and I’m representing Italy. Ciao uagliò… It means “hello guys”, “friends”.

The performance

This does not mean that the result is already written. Eurovision has demonstrated several times that it knows how to overturn predictions and reward performance capable of creating immediate connection with the public. It is there that Sal Da Vinci will have to play everything: on the voice, on the interpretation, on the ability to transform a traditional song into a universal moment and on the staging, which always makes the difference at Eurovision. Repeating the Måneskin feat appears unlikely today. But surprising, yes (or rather, forever yes), is still possible.