Here’s why Sabrina Carpenter can win a Grammy
You can bet on anything, sports or otherwise, even in the music field. Without going too far, our Sanremo Festival also includes bets complete with quotations from gambling management companies.
Perhaps it can also be done on the predictions of winning the Grammys, so if you want to bet on the winner of the song of the year at the Grammys you don’t need to know the lineups and the performances of the teams as in football, but you certainly need to seriously take into consideration a study that predicts who will win the award at next month’s ceremony.
The processing – carried out by Startle“supplier of music in stores”, effectively a distributor – analyzed the winners of the award over the last 50 years taking into account their respective times, danceability, age of the artist, gender and sex. By processing and cross-referencing this data he made a risky prediction. According to the analysis, “Espresso” by Sabrina Carpenter has an 80% chance of winning.
“Espresso” is a song that satisfies many of the needs. It is a positive, danceable, upbeat and very catchy song. If Carpenter wins the award, it will be the second time in a row that a former Disney Channel star has won, after Miley Cyrus won “Record Of The Year” in 2024 with “Flowers.”
Behind Carpenter are, with a 71% chance of victory, i Beatles with “Now And Then”. It hasn’t sold/streamed as much as “Espresso”, but among the factors in its favor is the fact that, incredibly, despite having been nominated four times, the Fabs have never won this award.
Additionally, in the past the Grammy academy has tended to choose the safer, more conservative option. And after the victory of female solo artists in four of the last five years, the judges may prefer a male group this time.
If they wanted to dare more, they could focus on “Not Like Us”, the song by Kendrick Lamar that “said” from Drake and that he has a 70% chance of winning, the same figure as “Good Luck, Babe” by Chappell Roan.
However, despite being Spotify’s most streamed song of the year, Startle weighs in on the chances of ‘Birds Of A Feather’ Billie Eilish only 61%. According to the study, Billie Eilish won the award in 2020 and 2021 and so it would be a surprise if she managed to achieve a hat-trick.
Startle’s investigation also uncovered other data. Male solo artists are still the most likely winners of the award: they have won 26 of the last 50 editions. Female solo artists have won 16 times and mixed-gender groups only seven times. There was also a non-binary winner: Sam Smith in 2016, although the singer still identified as male at the time.
If you don’t trust Startle, trust me Trent Reznorthe 59-year-old Nine Inch Nail frontman pointed to the hit song of Sabrina Carpenter “Espresso” as his favorite song of 2024.
